Predicting Democracy

Richard Florida, guest blogging for Andrew Sullivan, comments on a study that examines 59 factors and whether they predict emergence and success of democracy. The study found that just five factors predict that democracy will emerge and only four predict that it will survive.

According to the study, the strongest predictors of a transition to democracy are past transitions, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) membership and GDP growth; the study found a negative correlation between the latter and the emergence of democracy. As Florida puts it, "contrary to 'modernization theory', the study finds that richer countries are not more likely to become democracies. Richer countries are more likely to remain democracies once they become one." While there was also evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see a transition to democracy, the finding with respect to Muslim countries was entirely driven by oil producing Muslim countries.

The strongest predictors of the survival of democracy are GDP per capita, which has a positive effect, and past transitions, which has a negative effect. There was also evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect and that having other democracies as neighbors has a positive effect.

UPDATE: There is a new post, indicating that Florida may have made a mistake in his initial analysis.