Iran Election Fallout

Andrew Sullivan has been posting all day on reactions and updates. On the count:

Confirmation from al Jazeera:

And with each updated count, Ahmadinjad's lead did not waver from a very stable range of 66-69 per cent, irrespective of which districts were reporting.

This looks like such a crude rigging of the vote that it is either a sign of utter incompetence or profound panic, and probably both. One assumes that the Khameini forces have total confidence that they can suppress any resistance after such a provocation. But what if they are as capable of misjudging that as they were the electorate?